10/2/2012: JUST HOW ETHICAL IS THE RICHARD CHANDLER CORPORATION?
Anti-pulp mill group Tasmanians against the pulpmill (TAP) claim to have found evidence that the RCC is not all that it makes itself out to be. The following link would appear to indicate that they have been thrown out of Monaco and Dubai.

The Spymaster of Monte Carlo

9/2/2012: COMMENT - $280 MILLION DOES NOT A PULPMILL MAKE
RCC have given Gunns a lifeline and maybe a year's breathing space. It does not make the pulpmill more likely. If RCC thought the project was a brilliant investment, they would put the money in themselves. Any corporation contacted by RCC will ask the same question. The deal is one that any company that was not desperate would refuse. It virtually hands over control and dilutes the shareholder base. It could be that RCC see Gunns' plantations and realise that with some careful manipulation, they could come their way at a bargain price. Gunns have been trying to find a JVP for 5 years without success and nothing has changed - except it's much more expensive, not so competitive because of the high Australian dollar and Gunns have sold or are selling their supply of plantation wood. Even if Gunns gets $280m. it will be used to retire debt as will all the proceeds from asset sales. Last time Gunns tried to raise capital on the ASX it was a dismal failure. Matthew Denholm in the Australian thinks it might be a ploy:

The view in the Australian

8/2/2012: GUNNS ANNOUNCE SHARE OFFER/CASH INJECTION
The Richard Chandler Corporation (RCC) will take a 40% share in Gunns in return for a cash injection. Gunns will also try and raise capital on the share market via a rights issue. The total cash raised could be $280m. This will effectively take the pressure off Gunns for the present. They will, however, still need a joint venture partner and finance to build a pulp mill.

6/2/2012: GUNNS' SHARES SUSPENDED PENDING ANNOUNCEMENT
According to Gunns' statement to the ASX, an announcement regarding equity will be made on Wednesday. Have they found someone brave enough to inject some capital in to this failing company?

2/2/2012: GUNNS' FACE COURT IN APRIL
Gunns now face a serious legal attempt to cancel their building permits in the Supreme Court in April. Today Gunns gave up trying to get it put off indefinitely.

30/1/2012: GUNNS' FINANCE RENEWED
Gunns' financiers, mainly the ANZ Bank, must know that they will get more of their money back in the long term if they allow Gunns to continue operating rather than sending them in to administration with a fire sale of their assets. Not that Gunns deserves to survive - it's a pragmatic decision. But the time of the extension is interesting - just 11 months.

18/1/2012: ANZ TARGETTED AGAIN
Gunns' bankers are once again being targetted by anti-mill groups. The bank has to decide whether to roll-over Gunns' main debt which is due on 31st January. If Gunns go into administration it will be difficult to sell off assets at a good market price so the ANZ may decide to let Gunns live a little longer - although they must be balancing that against the inconvenience and loss of business that continuing to support Gunns entails - a poison chalice indeed!

13/1/2012: GUNNS CLAIMS A GREAT VICTORY!
The case against Gunns by the group 'Pulp the mill' was dismissed yesterday although the group had decided to withdraw because of the Supreme Court action by the Tasmanian Conservation Trust. Gunns have issued a press release claiming the group failed to produce any evidence - but they did not explain the reason why. This is exactly the sort of one-sided and misleading press release that got the public off-side with the project in the first place. Nothing changes with Gunns - pathetic.

12/1/2012: GUNNS' SHARES JOIN PENNY DREADFULS
Gunns' shares are now down below 10 cents. There has been no announcement on refinancing yet, it is due by 31st January.

5/1/2012: GUNNS' SHARES SUFFER ANOTHER COLLAPSE
Gunns' shares ended today on 10.5 cents - a drop of 20% on the recent trading range. It doesn't look as though there is any good news in the pipeline at present. The loans due to the ANZ bank are due to be paid this month. Gunns cannot possibly do this so will the bank pull the plug or sustain them and hope that something turns up? We shall see.

29/12/11: HAMPSHIRE MILL TO RE-OPEN?
A report in the Advocate newspaper suggested Gunns were thinking of opening the Hampshire woodchip mill. The only wood available would be the plantations that are touted for use in the proposed pulp mill. If they reopen the mill, it is a virtual admission that the pulpmill is not going ahead and that the policy of selling all assets to avoid bankruptcy continues.

23/12/11: COMMENT
Here we are: another year gone by with no sign of a joint venture partner. Without the State government's injection of funds (on very dubious legal grounds), it is doubtful Gunns would have been able to make a start on earthworks. In fact, the cost of the project will be escalating by $20m. a month so Gunns spending $3m. a month on earthworks means they are going backwards fast. Greg L'Estrange has only got a contract to 30th June 2012 so surely it will all be over by then. With the looming economic turmoil in Europe, the chances of Gunns getting this project up are zero and they almost certainly know this but are trying to stave off looming possible administration.

23/12/11: GUNNS' PROFITS SINK AGAIN
Gunns' operating profit is down 40% to $30m. according to the latest market update. The figures do not include interest payments so it is likely that they are in fact running at a loss. The 'Green Triangle' sale is now marked down for 31st January 2012 - the day Gunns' debts are due. The share price is languishing around the 12 cent mark. Meanwhile, the Pulp the mill group have called off their court case against Gunns as it is just duplicating the one coming before the supreme court next year.

12/12/11: LAUNCESTON COUNCIL VOTE DOWN MOTION OF SUPPORT
Launceston City Council voted against a motion to support the pulp mill. The LCC had originally voted not to support to project until Gunns did a proper risk and traffic assessment. Gunns have never bothered to do these so the Council stance remains the same.

29/11/11: GUNNS FINALLY ABOUT TO COMPLETE GREEN TRIANGLE SALE
Later than originally stated, the sale of the 'Green Triangle' timber assets in Victoria is about to go through with a consequent debt reduction of $120m.. Gunns hope to sell other assets before January to reduce debt to between $300 and $400m. - Plus the pulp mill debt of course at $240m. which means that if Gunns admits it's all over, their assets will barely cover their liabilities. Events in Europe suggest it was not a good idea to tie the pulpmill in to their resolution - things are going from bad to worse there. Gunns' share price has halved in the last month after a short revival.

24/11/11: L'ESTRANGE GETS ANOTHER SEVEN MONTHS
Gunns' CEO Greg L'Estrange has only had his contract extended by 6 months. So it is likely the fate of the pulp mill project will be decided one way or the other by then. The AGM had protestors outside as usual even though it was held in Melbourne.

24/11/11: SAME OLD STORY AT AGM
Gunns are still talking constructively with pulp mill partners according to Gunns' CEO Greg L'Estrange at their AGM in Melbourne today. Ho Ho! The excuse is the financial turmoil in Europe but this doesn't hold water as the Scandinavian countries where a likely partner would come from are not really affected by the crisis. The projected cost is still $2.3bn for the project - the same as two years ago. Who are they trying to fool? Project cost inflation is running at 10% so by now the project will take $2.8bn to build. To pretend otherwise is pathetic. Debts are being reduced by asset sales but they will still owe over $300m. plus the pulp mill debt ($240m.)with a greatly reduced asset backing. Will they survive?

22/11/11: GAY TO FACE COURT
Former Gunns CEO John Gay is to face charges brought by ASIC of insider trading. He sold three million shares @90 cents - just before a profit downgrade resulting in a share price crash. There is also a shareholder action proceeding against Gunns for not releasing information before the share price crashed.

21/11/11: CHIP MARKET COLLAPSES
The Bell Bay exporting facility has refused further deliveries as the woodchip export market has completely dried up for the present.

6/11/11: GOVERNMENT CONSIDERS NEW CHIP FACILITY
The latest crazy idea from this incompetent State government is to build a new wood chip exporting facility in the south to replace Triabunna, the non-opening of which is the subject of a blame game. The truth is that Forestry does not want to deal with Triabunna because they will not process timber from areas supposed to be protected. All this has nothing to do with the pulp mill but just shows how Forestry controls the State government agenda. A new facility would be an economic disaster with the taxpayers picking up the bill - again.

5/11/11: RAVERTY SAVAGES CRIKEY
Pulp mill expert Dr Warwick Raverty has written a rebuttal to Stephen Mayne's article in crikey pointing out that he has been badly mislead by Gunns. Locals say that the site workings are very, very slow but on the day Mayne arrived, every man and his dog were there to put on a show of getting things done!

The Tasmanian Times

2/11/11: CRIKEY DECIDES MILL IS BEST THING SINCE SLICED BREAD
Crikey founder Stephan Mayne has, on the basis of a two hour visit to the site at Longreach and some Gunns' hospitality, given the project the thumbs-up. It is obvious from the article that Mayne has swallowed Gunns' propaganda hook, line and sinker and not bothered the inform himself from other points of view. What a boofhead!

26/10/11: NEW LEGAL ATTEMPT TO STOP MILL
The Tasmanian Conservation Trust, obviously backed by some deep pockets, are taking the commencement issue to the High Court of Tasmania and then, if they lose, to the Federal Supreme court. A decision that the mill had not commenced by 30th August (which it quite clearly had not) would mean the end of the project for the present.

25/10/11: GUNNS AGM TO BE HELD IN MELBOURNE ON 24th NOVEMBER
Either Gunns are scared of continuing demonstrations and awkward questions at their AGM or they are getting ready to leave Tasmania for good. It might backfire as there are plenty of demonstrators in Melbourne! Their yearly report presentation is particularly lavish this year and in it they say they hope they will sign up a joint venture partner before the end of the year. I bet they do (hope). They could be in administration by then according to some sources.

20/10/11: ASX - PLEASE EXPLAIN
Gunns have been asked if there is any reason there share price has risen sharply in the last week. The company have replied they have no idea and that no announcements are forthcoming. The likely reason is that asset sales are due to concluded at the end of October and the announcement may give the shares a boost. Some funds have realised and bought in advance. Others have assumed somebody knows something and jumped on the bandwagon.

6/10/11: HUGE HEALTHCARE CUTS
Just days after these revelations, the government announced there would be $60m. taken out of the health budget - about the amount that Gunns have benefited (with cancelled debts) from their 'compensation' deal. Have the government got a death wish?

4/10/11: GUNNS, GOVERNMENT AND FORESTRY COOK UP COMPENSATION DEAL
It now transpires that Gunns wrote to Forestry Tasmania in April giving up all their native forest rights. The minister, Bryan Green, was informed in May. So then, when Gunns realised that they had potentially missed out on compensation, the contracts were renegotiated to allow the Government to 'compensate' Gunns to the tune of $23m. - over double if you count the cancelled debt to FT. Also in the letter is the admission that the pulp mill had not commenced - contrary to their claims when the permits expired. The whole thing stinks.

The letter and ministerial briefing

2/10/11: NOT HAPPY GUNNS
Gunns' auditors in the yearly financial statement, released at close of business on the last possible day, have several warnings for investors in the company. The auditors point out that Gunns have to repay over $500m. in the next 12 months by selling assets or by re-financing. According to their books, Gunns have assets valued at over $900m. but, so far, those sold have been at a large discount to their valuation. Part of these assets is the money spent on the pulp mill project, over $200m., which would have to be written off if the project folds leaving Gunns with debts almost as large as their supposed assets. No bank would back a company under these circumstances so no wonder Gunns are desperate to keep the pulp mill dream alive. Gunns' CEO Greg L'Estrange says he is talking to two possible joint venture partners but it is difficult to see anyone being interested in the current economic climate. The cost of the project has not been updated for two years now - it is likely to be close to $3bn. now and the fact that Gunns are still saying $2.3bn. would indicate they are living in fairy land.

28/9/11: EPA SAYS PROJECT HAS COMMENCED
Well, surprise, surprise! Why has it taken so long? Could it be that they got legal advice which they didn't like and so fell back on advice from the solicitor-general - basically part of the government? This after Lara Giddings said that they would not get involved and the decision would be apolitical. Of course, the S-G's advice has not been released. Another backroom deal.

27/9/11: UPPER HOUSE REJECT FORESTRY AGREEMENT
This does not affect the payments to Gunns and Forestry Tasmania. Why? Good question. But Gunns have said in the past that the agreement is necessary for Gunns to find a JVP (if there are any interested in investing in this shambolic mess).

21/9/11: GOVERNMENT ORDERED TO DISCLOSE LEGAL ADVICE
Tasmania's upper house of parliament has ordered the government to release legal advice relating to the buy-back of Gunns' native forest rights. The fact that the government is trying very hard not to is in itself suspicious. More backroom dodgy deals?

19/9/11: GUNNS' SHARES GO BACK ON MARKET FOR WILD RIDE
Gunns'shares fluctuated wildly today after five weeks suspension from 17c to 27c but ended up at the same value as their suspension value - 20.5 cents. The statement that came with it said nothing that hadn't been said before many times. Gunns claim to have several joint venture partners interested which is strange because just a few weeks ago, they admitted they had none and they said they were going to build it alone. Of course, nobody in the market believed this so now it's back to JVPs waiting in the wings. Meanwhile, nothing has been heard from the EPA which is supposed to be deciding if Gunns' permits have lapsed. The EPA is a government body and will decide in favour of Gunns because that is government policy - yet another rort. The fact that it is taking so long is an indication that the best minds are at work trying to prove that two plus two equals five.

14/9/11: LEAKED EMAILS EMBARRASS GUNNS
Leaked emails from the early days of the assessment of the project appear to indicate Gunns trying to hide the possible pollution effects of the mill. And, in another embarrassment, protesters stopped work on the pulp mill site.

Tasmanian Times

14/9/11: GUNNS ACCEPTS NEW OFFER
Believed to be $23m. to Gunns plus resolution of the disputed debt with Forestry Tasmania.

9/9/11: GUNNS GET NEW OFFER
The State government has made another offer for Gunns' native forest rights. As usual, no details are disclosed and Gunns have as long as they like to reply.

7/9/11: PULP THE MILL GO TO COURT
Gunns are now facing a court action to stop earthworks at the mill site. The permits have expired but this arrogant company is carrying on with the work regardless. The State government and EPA are too spineless to do anything about it. They have even suggested that Gunns may get more compensation as they've rejected the previous offer. Sounds just like when they pulled out of the State assessment process and were rewarded with a much easier one. And Gunns didn't bother sending the information in for the shareholders action either and that has been postponed for a month. The shares are still frozen. Just how much and for how long is this appallingly behaved company going to get away with it? Their public image has sunk to new lows taking the government with them. It can only surely be weeks now before a final collapse.

5/9/11: GUNNS REJECTS STATE OFFER
Gunns has rejected the State government offer to buy out their native forest rights. The most likely reason for this is to give them an excuse to keep their shares off the ASX. It is nearly five weeks now and when if and when they are re-listed, there is likely to be a huge dumping.

4/9/11: EARTHMOVING MACHINES ARRIVE
Three large earthmoving machines arrived today at the Longreach site. The permits have expired and conservation groups could launch an injunction at any moment. What are Gunns up to? Quite simply they need to put on a show to get their shares back on the market otherwise it's all over. So they will be making a big mess on the hillside overlooking the estuary to try and save the company. They have no hope of getting any further and, in fact, may be bust before they get the bill for the current work.

31/8/11: GUNNS SAYS THEY'VE STARTED
In a statement to the ASX today, Gunns claim they started earthworks at the site on the 29th. That's rubbish. The permits have expired but Gunns are going to try and bluff their way through the difficulties. It should be up to the government to sort out this mess as they created it in the first place but Lara Giddings says that it would be political interference. Well, Lara, we've had nothing but political interference in this project for the last seven years - why stop now? Lara is now down to 19% in the polls so may not last much longer as Premier. Gunns are considering an offer from the State government to buy back their native wood quotas but as it includes a settlement with Forestry Tasmania, who claim they are owed $25m. by Gunns, the amount is unlikely to be more than a few million. Gunns' shares have now been suspended for four weeks - it looks as though it could be all over soon.

27/8/11: DESPERATION RULES
Gunns are now in desperation mode. They have announced they have awarded a contract for the earthworks - only $20m. worth instead of the promised $30m. The works will take seven months so it's going to be fairly slow going ($3m a month). Their 'presentation' said that $30m. would be spent on the project this year so it looks as though that's all that's going to happen. The alternative, doing nothing, was not an option as they would be wiped out in the stock market. They claim that they are talking to a joint venture partner: Well, they would wouldn't they? - because blind Freddy can see Gunns cannot go it alone. The date stated for final closure is March 31st 2012. The discussions cannot have progressed much if it's going to take 7 months.

But why have they left it until the last minute to start earthworks? In fact it's unlikely that any work will be done on the pulp mill footprint before Wednesday when the permits will have expired. Surely if they were confident that the project is going ahead they would have made sure they did a few weeks work before Tuesday. The EPA now say Gunns can work on the site until they have received legal advice (how incompetent - they should have been ready for this weeks ago). But, of course, an injunction could be served by a anti-mill group stopping work until it's sorted out. It doesn't seem likely that the EPA, a government agency will stop the project in view of the government's bending and twisting of the rules in the past! In fact, the government are almost certainly pulling the strings to get what they want without getting the blame.

Gunns may have been trying to get the State government to pay them out for their native wood contracts (no payout = no mill) but it hasn't worked. They've had their bluff called. Or maybe Gunns are hoping an injunction will delay the project for a while to save them money which they cannot afford. JP Morgan say that starting the mill before financial closure is a risk too far. Whatever the reasons and the motives, without the hope of a mill, Gunns are stuffed so they have to keep pretending. In short, Gunns have done what they had to to keep their heads above water (at the fairly minimal cost of $3m. a month). Once the shares are relisted on the ASX we shall see if Gunns have done enough to keep the wolves from the door.

25/8/11: GUNNS POSTS LOSS OF $355m.
Gunns have just posted their yearly (unaudited - are they having problems with an auditor?) result and it shows a loss of $355m. as opposed to a profit last year of $28m. They are still talking up the pulp mill and still saying they are going to start in August. Just 5 days to go - the permits expire on 30th August. The shares are still not relisted with the same excuse as before - negotiations with the State government.

23/8/11: ONE WEEK TO GO
With a week to go until the permits MIGHT expire, the arguments are cranking up. It's difficult to see how a court could come to any other conclusion that the project has not been substantially commenced. In fact Gunns are still saying that they will start this week. But how can you substantially progress a $2.5bn. project in a few days? Gunns needs to persuade shareholders that the project is still a goer otherwise, when the shares are relisted on Thursday, it could be armageddon.

19/8/11: GUNNS DELAYS FULL YEAR RESULTS
To delay your full year results suggests that they are being sexed up for market consumption because otherwise things as they stand may not go down too well! Gunns says its results will be released next Thursday and that hopefully their shares will be listed again. It all sounds bad news for shareholders. They also say that the 'compensation' will be put towards the pulp mill project - should pay for a few shovels!

19/8/11: GUNNS STARTS THE BLAME GAME
In today's Hobart Mercury Gunns are reported to have said that the timing and amount of 'compensation' for giving up their native forest concessions could affect their ability to build the pulp mill. That's all cobblers of course as even $106m., which they were originally claiming, would only disappear in to Gunns' debt black hole. But it could mean that Gunns are preparing to blame the State government for the impending project demise. No tenders have been let yet with only a week and a half left before permits expire. Meanwhile, the shares remain suspended and the longer that goes on, the more likely it is that they will never come back and Gunns, and the pulp mill, will be dead.

16/8/11: GUNNS INSISTS IT WILL START SOON
Gunns obviously believes it will need to start this month or the permits will expire as, in today's Examiner (Gunns' main propaganda mouthpiece), they say they will start construction in August. They've got 2 weeks - why have they left it so late? Isn't it more likely that they are trying to coax money out of the State government for their native wood contracts? We shall see but meanwhile, another supplier, this time in South Australia, has stopped supplying Gunns with timber because of unpaid bills.

11/8/11: ARROGANCE, STUPIDITY AND IGNORANCE HAS CAUSED GUNNS' DEMISE
An article in the Tasmanian Times has chronicled the reasons for Gunns' collapse from being one of the top 100 Australian companies to one that is fighting off liquidation. The main reason is of course the fatal and stupid decision to build the pulp mill at Longreach in the Tamar valley, potentially blighting the lives of 100,000 residents with smell and pollution, instead of the remote site at Hampshire where it would affect hardly anyone. This has been the main argument in this website all along but Gunns' management and the State Government have ignored all the warnings and adverse public reaction and tried to bully their way towards building the project. Having said that, it is now the opinion of this commentator that Gunns have shown such bad faith with their lack of community consultation, their attitude to local residents, their terrible treatment of local contractors, their cheating and lies, that they should not be allowed to run anything more complicated than a sawmill. There is now a suggestion that even if Gunns fails to start building the project by the end of August (looking increasingly likely), their permits will not expire as they have made substantial progress on the project! - If so it will be yet more CHEATING, SUBTERFUGE AND LIES, and this time new Gunns' CEO Greg L'Estrange will be implicated as well.

Tasmanian Times

8/8/11: GUNNS WILL NOT GET ANY FEDERAL MONEY
The forestry agreement states that NO money from the Federal Government will be used to advance the pulp mill. And it appears that Gunns will not be getting any of the cash from the agreement but will rely instead on negotiations with the State Government for the native forest buy-back. It remains to be seen if Gunns have the cash to make the substantial start in August to keep their pulp mill construction permits valid. The shares remain suspended for the present until the situation is clarified.

7/8/11: GUNNS GETS MONEY - AMOUNT TO BE KEPT SECRET
The forest agreement has been signed with over $80m. being spent on compensation to contractors affected including Gunns. But the amount Gunns are getting will not be revealed. So, Gunns may well stagger on for a few more months and there might be a hole dug in the ground at Longreach to keep the permits going. If I were a contractor for this work I would want payment up front!

6/8/11: RUMOUR-MILL RAMPANT
All sorts of rumours are circulating from: Gunns are about to go bankrupt; Gunns will get a large payout from the forestry agreement signed this weekend; Gunns have a venture partner and are about to announce a capital raising to fund their half of the mill. The most likely explanation is that Gunns are hoping to get a promised payout this weekend and avoid going in to administration - for the moment.

4/8/11: GUNNS NOW IN TRADING HALT
Gunns reason for requesting a trading halt is because an announcement is expected soon on how much 'compensation' Gunns will receive in the forestry agreement. Their shares have tanked in the last two days losing 20% of their value and it could be to stop the precipitous decline. Gunns new Bell Bay sawmill, virtually their only source of cash-flow, has been halted through lack of wood because Gunns are behind with payments. Greens MP Kim Booth has said he will try and bring down the state government if they give money to Gunns. High stakes.

4/8/11: GUNNS ON THE NOSE WITH FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
According to today's Examiner, the federal government are refusing to have anything to do with any compensation to Gunns for giving up native forest contracts. That means the state government will have to provide the cash which will go down like a lead balloon with the electorate. If there is no compensation then the Triabunna chip mill will close. And could it be that Gunns are saying 'no compensation, no pulp mill'? Of course, the compensation would not pay for a pulp mill, most of it will just disappear into a debt black hole but it might pay for the start required to keep the permits alive. The tiny brains of state government ministers will be sorely taxed over the next few days.

1/8/11: GUNNS TRYING TO SHORT-CHANGE WORKERS
The union negotiating with Gunns about wages for pulp mill construction workers has said that Gunns are trying to get away with wages lower than those paid on the mainland and that negotiations that had been going on for a year are in stalemate. Construction workers' wages in Australia have boomed with the mining boom. The Australian reported last week that only one out of twenty projects worth $2bn. or more ended under budget so it is likely the pulp mill project will cost at least $3bn. maybe more.

31/7/11: CRUNCH TIME FOR GUNNS
As July ends and no work has been done yet on site, Gunns have 31 days to make a substantial start on the project or their permits will expire. Gunns have been advertising on TV and this could be a last ditch attempt to sway public opinion in their direction (to try and get a joint venture partner on board) or else it could just be for the Government's benefit - to show they are still serious about building the mill and a generous buy-out of their native forest harvesting rights would help! August should be an interesting month - Will Gunns spend $30m. that they haven't got to keep their pulpmill proposal alive? Are Gunns waiting for a final verdict from potential partners? It seems unlikely after all this time. We shall see.

21/7/11: CHICKENS AND EGGS AT TRIABUNNA
The purchase contract states that the Triabunna woodchip mill cannot reopen until the forestry deal is completed to Gunns' satisfaction. In other words until Gunns receives adequate funds from the Government to buy back their native wood quotas. Gunns are playing hardball with the Government and the rest of the forest industry and we can now see why Gunns sold to the environmental consortium for $6m. less than they would have got from forest interests. Meanwhile the forest unions are saying they will not sign the agreement unless the woodchip mill is reopened - a chicken and egg situation!

20/7/11: GUNNS DENY THEY ARE DESPERATE FOR CASH
Gunns' CEO Greg L'Estrange denies that Gunns are short of cash. Well, he would, wouldn't he? Gunns are selling down everything they own to try and stay afloat. There is a large debt due at the end of this year as well as other short-term debts. Gunns will be hoping for a generous buy-back payment from the Government for exiting native forest. Anyone who does the sums knows that Gunns are in deep financial trouble and may not survive for much longer in their present form. Even if a joint venture partner miraculously appeared at this late stage, it is doubtful Gunns could raise their share of the cash. No Australian bank is interested because they know there will be a campaign against them. Gunns is the most unpopular company in Australia after they, with the help of the State Government, rorted the local planning scheme to get their pulp mill approval. They still have not assessed the effect of emissions on the the Tamar valley's closed airshed or the odours or the effect on inshore waters. There has been no risk analysis and the economic analysis was benefits only. It does not comply with the Equator Principles. Gunns have sacked most of their pulp mill team, have sold FSC plantations they will need to feed the mill and have, according to some sources, stopped maintaining the (non FSC) rest. The project is deeply unpopular locally and there will be major disruptions if the project actually proceeds. The pipeline route is uncertain and subject to legal action. Gunns also face a shareholder action and a possible claim from disgruntled contractors. Gunns have not informed the ASX that they intend to start work on the site at the end of July. If they did and it didn't happen they could be in trouble. Gunns' estimate of the cost of the mill is now two years old and it is now likely to be nearer $3bn.

17/7/11: GUNNS SAY THEY READY TO START
According to Gunns' CEO Greg L'Estrange, Gunns are setting out tenders for earthworks at the Longreach site so they can make a substantial start before the permits lapse at the end of August. They've left it rather late. Are they going to find firms that can start at a drop of a hat? Also, the Winter weather has turned the site into a quagmire. It all seems rather unlikely. Meanwhile L'Estrange is rushing around all the pulp mill companies that have previously rejected the project trying to get them to change their minds. He knows that Gunns have no hope of building the mill on its own. If he doesn't get any interest by August will he dare risk wasting $30m. of shareholders' money on starting a project that will probably fail? We shall see. If not, it will all be over.

13/7/11: GUNNS SELL TRIABUNNA/HEADQUARTERS
The Triabunna woodchip mill has been sold to a tourist consortium for $10m. dashing the hopes of the forestry industry. Gunns has obviously lost patience with the dubious dealings surrounding the sale. Good for them! Also, Gunns announced that their Launceston headquarters would be sold to Bunnings and that they are negotiating with Forestry Tasmania to end their wood supply agreements.

7/7/11: GUNNS SAY THEY ARE STARTING CONSTRUCTION - THE END GAME?
Gunns have to make a substantial start to the pulp mill by the end of August or the permits will expire. In order to make a 'substantial start' by the end of August then activity on the site would need to begin by the end of July. At a meeting at the site yesterday Gunns claimed that they will make a start at the end of July. So Gunns are trying to find a way to keep the permits alive. They have no hope of making substantial progess on a project that will cost at least $3bn - probably a lot more - but they are going to dig a few holes in the ground and then claim that they have made a substantial start. Gunns are slowly going broke and need the myth of the mill to prevent a final collapse. A hand-out by the Government might save the company but they will still have no hope of building the mill. But they will have no hope of a hand-out if they admit the mill is dead.

30/6/11: ANZ BANK BAILS OUT GUNNS
Gunns have announced that the ANZ Bank have covered their $55m. repayments due today taking the Bell Bay sawmill as collateral. Also the Government has announced that it will lend the money for the purchase of the Triabunna chipmill but this could be in doubt as Timber Communities Australia involved in the forest agreement has indicated it is not satisfied and is not going to sign. Gunns indicated that the sale was conditional on a satisfactory forest resolution. Gunns and the rest of the timber industry seem to have fallen out but Gunns still owns assetts that the industry needs if it is going to continue. Gunns will therefore be holding out for adequate compensation. Gunns are conducting an on-site briefing session on July 6th for local businesses interested in earning money from the pulp mill construction which they say will begin at the end of July. Could this be an attempt to impress the State Government (who seem to have few braincells between them) to persuade the Federals to give Gunns massive compensation to keep the company afloat? Once Gunns admit that the project is all over they can kiss goodbye to any handouts.

24/6/11: FOREST AGREEMENT
The latest forest agreement has been released, mistakenly it seems, as it was then withdrawn. It needs a lot of Government money to proceed and as both Federal and State Goverments are strapped for cash, it is far from certain it will proceed. The news was welcomed by Gunns but there was no mention of the pulp mill in their release. It's difficult to see how it will make any difference as the cost of the pulp mill must be close to $3bn by now and Gunns' compensation, if they get any as the forest access was gifted to them anyway, would hardly be more than a few tens of millions.

24/6/11: GUNNS SELLS PLANTATIONS
Gunns have potentialy sold their 'Green triangle' plantations providing the buyer can come up with the cash. The deal will go through by 31st October. The amount is $107m, Gunns probably hoped for better, and it will be used to retire debt. The plantations were values at $250m so it has resulted in quite a loss. If the same discount was applied to Gunns' Tasmanian plantations, they would fall in value by $400m.

23/6/11: TRIABUNNA PURCHASER ASKS FOR GOVERNMENT LOAN
Does this mean the banks will have nothing to do with it as the mill is unlikely to make a profit?

16/6/11: COMMENT
Gunns are in survival mode and need to raise over $50m by June 30th to repay a loan. The only way they are going to do that is if the forestry agreement currently being negotiated allocates some compensation to Gunns for giving up native forest logging. That could occur in the next couple of weeks and keep Gunns alive - for a bit longer anyway. However, how likely are the Federal Government to give Gunns money that will almost certainly just disappear in to Gunns ' debts? We shall see. Gunns now have 11 weeks to make a substantial start on the pulpmill or the building permits will lapse. Gunns and Forestry Tasmania appear to be each other's throats at the moment so co-operation between them has ceased. Forestry Tasmania will do their best to wreck any forestry agreement and the Government seem unable or unwilling to reign them in. The share price is now down to 25 cents. The end could well be nigh!

14/6/11: TRIABUNNA MILL SOLD
Gunns have confirmed that they have sold the Triabunna chip mill - No price information and the sale is conditional on the forest agreement being signed. Why? Could it be that it is a threat: no agreement and we'll go back to selling woodchips from old growth forest? The share price is now down to 27.5 cents.

7/6/11: ANOTHER LEGAL CHALLENGE
The Tasmanian Conservation Trust have challenged the Federal decision to approve the mill on two grounds. They claim the minister can only change the pipeline route for conservation reasons - not because Gunns asked them to. Gunns wanted a change of route to avoid landowners who would not let it through. The other reason is a clause allowing changes to be made to the project without public consultation. The Trust says that this would set a dangerous precedent.

7/6/11: GUNNS' SHARE PRICE TANKS AGAIN
It has now gone down to the level it was before the last bullish announcement.

4/6/11: ANZ CONFIRM NO PULP MILL FINANCE - CHIP MILL SHUT PERMANENTLY
Gunns' bankers, the ANZ Bank, have confirmed their original decision not to fund the pulpmill. It is thought that the project failed the Equator Principles test. The ANZ is a signatory to the treaty. Customers of the bank would leave in droves if the bank changed its mind. And Gunns have made their closure of their Triabunna woodchip mill permanent.

1/6/11: GUNNS' LAST THROW OF DICE
Gunns have admitted there is no joint venture partner or finance. So they are going to go it alone. Sell everything they own to finance the project. The only problem is that that they already owe over $600m. They don't have anything like the assetts to raise that sort of money and what they have is overvalued anyway. And how are they going to survive with no cash flow whilst the mill is being built? It's another ruse to stop the share price faling like a stone. It's over.

28/5/11: CONFUSION ON EXPIRY OF PERMITS
Apparently the pulp mill approval clarification bill 2009 was a bit of an oxymoron as it does not clarify what constitutes a substantial start to construction or whether the permits can be extended. Can you expect anything else from these shambolic Tasmanian politicians? Pathetic. As things stand, the permits expire on 31st August unless Gunns have made a substantial start on construction. Three months to go. We shall see.

26/5/11: LIBS/LABS VOTE DOWN REPEAL OF PULP MILL APPROVAL BILL
The Greens motion was voted down. This was to be expected as they know that the end of the pulp mill will probably mean the end for Gunns.

24/5/11: GUNNS SELLING WOODCHIP CARRIER
Gunns owns a woodchip carrier and this has now been put on the market. The ship would be necessary if the pulp mill were built to transport 1.5m tonnes of woodchips from Victoria. Would Gunns be selling if there was a remote possibility that the project will proceed? The share price is now 35 cents.

18/5/11: WILDO'S WITHDRAW FROM NEGOTIATIONS
The Wilderness Society, probably annoyed by Lara Giddings statement in Parliament that the statement of principles was all about getting Gunns' pulp mill up (and we thought it was about protecting the forests), have withdrawn from negotiations making them meaningless. Gunns' share price is now below 40cents, one tenth the price they were when the project was announced.

15/5/11: ANOTHER LARGE DEMO' AGAINST MILL
A crowd, estimated to be in the region of 6000, attended an anti-pulpmill rally in Launceston yesterday. The theme was the death of democracy and most of the crowd wore black. It seems that opposition to the mill is as strong as ever.

9/5/11: ELECTIONS WORK AGAINST MILL
An anti-pulpmill candidate, Rosemary Armitage, defeated the son of an ex-Gunns' Board member to take the seat of Launceston and the Government lost a minister meaning they might have to have another cabinet member from the Greens. A big demonstration is planned for this Saturday in Launceston against the project.

21/4/11: GUNNS INCREASES OUTPUT OF MILL
Gunns has requested changes in the permits to allow an increase of nearly 20% in mill output to 1.3m tonnes. Gunns' share price was slipping badly. An announcement was needed to shore it up. This was it.

20/4/11: CLASS ACTION BY GUNNS' SHAREHOLDERS
A class action against Gunns for failing to keep the market informed about last years' profit collapse has been brought by 300 shareholders. If nothing else, it will cost Gunns a lot to defend the action and result in bad publicity for the company.

15/4/11: ADVERT KEEPS MYTH GOING
An advert paid for by Tasmanian businesses (it's amazing how Gunns manages to get other people to pay for their promotions) extols the 'benefits' of the pulp mill. In the past, this sort of advertising has been counter-productive. It just reminds people that the approval process was based on lies and deception. Gunns will welcome anything that gives the impression that the mill is going to happen - but it isn't.

10/4/11: RISING DOLLAR, SINKING PULP MILL
The inexorable rise if the Australian dollar is making Gunns' job of attracting a joint venture partner more and more difficult. It increases the cost of the JVP's share whilst making hardly any difference to the cost of the project as only a small percentage will be spent outside Australia. But the main effect of the rise is to make the mill totally uncompetitive.

5/4/11: KELTY REPORT FINAL NAIL IN COFFIN?
Bill Kelty's report on the forestry industry in Tasmania recommends an independent, robust pulp mill assessment to include all the downsides and with compensation being paid to businesses adversely affected. As Gunns are running out of time it seems that there would not be a suitable timeframe for all this and it is possible that Gunns will go bust before any decision is reached.

       These are the main points:
        *  There is concern in the community about the process used to approve the mill
	*  There is cynicism and division in the community
	*  Compensation should be considered for those disadvantaged by the project
	*  There should be an independent robust assessment
	*  Even then it cannot be assumed there will not be opposition to the project if it goes ahead
	*  An independent economic assessment which includes negatives should be carried out 

 * It will be more expensive to build and operate
 * The environmental controls will be stiffer
 * The wood supply will be more expensive and not as reliable
 * The local population are hostile and will campaign vigorously at home and abroad
 * The local and national Government have a Green component
 * The local exchange rate is high
 * The local company has nil experience in building and running large projects and in fact are in financial trouble.