2010

GUNNS' SHARE PRICE

29/12/10: NEW POLL SHOWS PULP MILL NOT WANTED
An internet poll in the Examiner newspaper recorded over 80% of the population don't want a pulp mill in Tasmania.

19/12/10: L'ESTRANGE SELLING HOUSE
Gunns' CEO is selling his house in Launceston. Is he about to do a runner if either the project collapses, Gunns collapses or the project is started and open warfare breaks out? Meanwhile, the interviewers from the PR company are hearing tales of bullying, corruption, lack of consultation and general arrogance from Gunns. Their ears must be ringing!

12/12/10: GUNNS HIRES ANOTHER PR COMPANY
Another PR company is attempting to engage with anti-pulp mill groups and the reasonable conclusion is that Gunns is behind it. It is thought that the recent meeting at the Tailrace has prompted this action. The groups Friends of the Tamar, Pulp the Mill and Tasmanians against the pulp mill are all likely to refuse meetings unless concessions are offered. There is no point otherwise.

7/12/10: NO MONEY FROM FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
There is no funding for Tasmanian Forests says Canberra. They have already had enough and they will have to sort out the deal without massive funding. This could be the death of the agreement. Gunns are not happy as, it is rumoured, they needed funds to keep going.

6/12/10: FEDERAL GOVERNMENT APPROVE FOREST PEACE PLAN
It has been announced that the Federal Government have approved the 'peace' plan. There is no mention of any funding and it is thought the final details will have to be thrashed out over the next few months. Meanwhile it has been revealed that Gunns failed to come up with the cash for their latest purchase, the FEA sawmill at Bell Bay. They have been given another 14 days. The rumour is that their bankers, the ANZ Bank, turned them down. Which begs the question - if they cannot raise $45m. how are they going to raise their share of the $2.5bn (and rising). We shall see.

1/12/10: MORE TROUBLE AND MORE LEGAL CHALLENGES AHEAD FOR GUNNS
In a strongly attended anti-pulpmill meeting in Riverside tonight, lawyer Vanessa Bleyer said that there were at least three legal challenges awaiting the pulpmill if it proceeds. At the meeting, scientist Warwick Raverty said the main problem with the mill will be the smell. Another piece of bad news for Gunns is the loss of an order to supply Japan with 1,200,000 tonnes of woodchips which includes plantation. Gunns are in big trouble financially according to some analysts.

28/11/10: NO COMPENSATION FOR GUNNS
Premier Bartlett has told Gunns that they will get no compensation for their decision to exit native forests. This will be a blow to Gunns who are struggling with over $600m. in debts. They have announced the schedule for closing their northern chip mills.

25/11/10: NO PULP MILL PARTNER YET
Gunns' shareholders were confronted by more than 100 protesters at their AGM today. It was announced at the AGM that 'due diligence' was taking longer than expected (!!!) but potential stakeholders had approved Gunns'project as being sound.

24/11/10: GUNNS LAYS OFF 150 WORKERS
Gunns announced today the sacking of 150 workers at their chip mills. No details were supplied.

14/11/10: MERCURY TOURS MILL SITE
The Hobart Mercury today has an article on the mill site at Longreach. It points out the problems that will occur such as noise, construction disruption and the visibility of the stack. (It does not mention the 500m high plume that always accompanies pulp mills.)

Hobart Mercury

10/11/10: COMMENT
It looks as though the latest finance negotiations have come to nothing as the optimism from around the beginning of October seems to have evaporated with Gunns' CEO Greg L'Estrange now admitting that Gunns' shares were not a short term buy. How long does it take to assess a financial loan anyway? The latest possible financial partners seem to be taking forever - or perhaps they've walked away like all the rest and Gunns have not owned up as the effect on the share price could be devastating.

31/10/10: PROTEST AT PULP MILL SITE
A gathering today at the pulp mill site made it quite clear the protests are not going away because of the forest agreement.

29/10/10: ANOTHER PROFIT WARNING
Gunns issued another profit warning causing their shares to sink 8% before recovering.

19/10/10: FOREST AGREEMENT SIGNED
Finally, the long awaited forest agreement has surfaced and as expected there is mention of a pulp mill being desirable down the track but NOT Gunns' Tamar project. Gunns' AXS release, not surprisingly claims this supports the project but they could be in for a shock. The organisations concerned will make it clear that they still do not support the current proposal and the local residents will never support it.

18/10/10: GUNNS CLOSES SCOTTSDALE MILL
Gunns announced today that it would close its Scottsdale sawmill. It is expected to put 85 workers out of a job.

16/10/10: L'ESTRANGE BACKS AWAY FROM TIMELINE - ADMITS MILL COULD BE BETTER
In an interview in 'The Australian', Gunns' CEO Greg L'Estrange has now backed away from company claims that finance will be obtained by the end of this year. Mr L'Estrange also admitted that the mill could be better as he said that Gunns would be willing to discuss air and water pollution and odours with local groups with the intention of improving the performance of the mill.

1/10/10: GUNNS SAYS FINANCE BY END OF YEAR
Gunns now say they expect to get finance for their project by the end of the year. We've heard that before. They also said that they did not expect it would cost any more than their original estimate 5 years ago (1.4bn). A year ago they said it would cost 2.5bn including interest. Gunns seem to be defying the laws of economics!

11/9/10: GUNNS NOW WANTS TO JOIN ROUND TABLE
On Stateline last night, Robert Eastman said that Gunns now wanted to join in the talks on the future of forestry. No doubt they will want an agreement that gives a green light to the Tamar valley pulp mill because they have already made concessions. However, the concessions were forced upon them by market pressures so there will be no obligation to give anything in return. The fact is that Gunns will never achieve a 'social licence' for a pulp mill in the Tamar valley because of their past behaviour in withdrawing from the proper planning process under false pretences after saying they would abide by the decision.

10/9/2010: GUNNS SLASHES WOODCHIP PAYMENTS
Gunns announced that payments for woodchips from sawmills are reduced because there is longer a good market for them. This will have a potentially disastrous effect on some sawmilling operations.

8/9/2010: GUNNS DESSERTS OLD ALLIES
Gunns have announced that they will no longer be members of the Forest Industries Association of Tasmania much to the annoyance of the other partners. Gunns say the logging debate is over and they will be using plantation wood in future. Maybe Gunns is so short of cash that they can no longer afford the fees?

26/8/2010: LEAKS AND RUMOURS HIT NEWSPAPERS
The Hobart Mercury and the ABC website reported this morning that an agreement in principle had been reached between environmentalists and the Timber industry which included a Tamar valley pulp mill. In fact, this is untrue as the agreement, not yet signed, only mentions that A pulp mill, not a Tamar valley one, and the Wilderness Society (and the Greens) totally oppose the existing proposal. This leak came probably from elements in the Timber industry trying to destabilise the groups that have proved such strong and effective opposition to the project. Even if true, the project still needs to gain finance and would still face strong opposition and protests.

14/8/2010: PIPELINE ROW IN PARLIAMENT
Green MP Kim Booth attacked Premier David Bartlett in the Tasmanian Parliament today for buying the land for Gunns' water pipeline. Mr Bartlett replied by attacking Mr. Booth (a common tactic when you know you're in the wrong) and calling it a conspiracy theory. He did not actualy deny it as if, in future, documentation was produced, he would have to resign. The facts are these. Then Gunns CEO John Gay said at the AGM that the pipeline issue had been resolved. The landowner made it quite clear he was not prepared to let it through. The only conclusion is that a secret backroom deal had been reached. Conspiracy theory Mr. Bartlett? Conspiracy fact.

16/8/2010: GUNNS' PROFIT DROPS AGAIN
Gunns' profit has halved from last year to $28m. It is however an improvement on what was expected earlier in the year. Gunns have now sold their wine business, Tamar Ridge, to Brown Brothers for $32.5m. further reducing their debt.

11/8/2010: FORESTRY AGREEMENT NEAR
Talks between Forestry interests and environmentalists are nearing completion according to the Examiner today. There are several possible outcomes. There was mention of a pulp mill but no mention of the Tamar project. There will be no long term peace if a pulp mill is built in the Tamar valley so let's hope common sense has prevailed.

5/8/2010: TAP SAY 'NO DEAL' AS WELL
Anti-pulpmill group TAP have joined with 'Pulp the Mill' in refusing to meet Gunns to discuss the project. TAP say Gunns have had 6 years to talk to the community but have not done so.

5/8/2010: DIER SAY GUNNS CAN USE LAND FOR PIPELINE
The State Government department that bought the land for the Dilston bypass now say, not surprisingly as that was their purpose all along in spite of denials, that Gunns can build their pipeline alongside the road.

2/8/2010: NEW POLL SHOWS MILL STILL ON THE NOSE
The latest opinion poll shows that the pulp mill is still just as unpopular with only 26% saying they thought the Federal Government should help out with 55% against.

27/7/2010: PULP THE MILL REFUSE TO MEET GUNNS
'Pulp the Mill', anti-mill group who have organised several demonstrations against the mill, have refused an invitation to meet with Gunns. Spokesperson Lucy Landon-Lane said there was no point in talking to Gunns as the Tamar valley was not a suitable location for any type of pulp mill.

14/7/2010: GUNNS HAVE PROBLEMS WITH FSC
Public meetings indicate that it will take years for Gunns to achieve full FSC certification and that their public image is as disastrous as ever. At a meeting in Launceston last night Gunns' spokesperson Francis Duffy ruled out Gunns returning to a proper assessment of their badly thought-out Tamar valley project. Meanwhile, a conference between the forest industry and conservationists is close to agreement according to the Australian.

12/6/2010: GUNNS' PROFITS ON THE RISE
In their latest statement to the ASX, Gunns say that improving trading conditions will increase their profits by $20m. On the pulp mill they say that three equity partners have indicated how much they would be prepared to invest in the project subject to further investigations. Further information will be available when it becomes definitive. In other words, not much progress. No joint venture partner was mentioned. They had hoped to announce a joint venture by the end of June - another deadline about to be missed.

11/6/2010: COUSINS CLAIMS CREDIT FOR GUNNS' COUP
Anti-pulp mill businessman Geoffrey Cousins claimed credit for getting rid of John Gay and Robin Gray off the Gunns' Board in a 'Lateline' interview last night. However, Gunns' CEO Greg L'Estrange is still insisting that the proposal is World's best practice even though Sodra, according to Mr Cousins, say that Australian standards are not nearly high enough. The Gunns' share price has settled down in the 45c range now and turnover has returned to normal. Meanwhile, plantations on the mainland that are managed, but not owned, by Gunns are being put up for sale. Gunns told the ASX that these would be used to make the mill plantation only.

28/5/2010: GUNNS' SHARES RECOVER LOST GROUND
Gunns' shares rose over 40% today and a massive number of shares changes hands. Could this be the start of a takeover or is everyone just glad that Gay has gone? Gunns still say that they are proceeding with the pulp mill but CEO Greg L'Estrange wants the firm to have a 'social licence'. It will never have a social licence until you drops plans to build a pulp mill in the Tamar valley Mr. L'Estrange.

27/5/2010: GAY RESIGNS - IS THIS THE END?
In a momentous week, Gunns' share price has dropped like a stone, institutional investors are selling shares and now John Gay has retired from Gunns and all its subsiduaries including the pulp mill vehicle Southern Star. A few weeks ago John Gay said that if he went the pulp mill would too.

18/5/2010: GUNNS CLAIMS FSC SALE
In a statement to the ASX Gunns said it had sold woodchips to Japanese companies that would used in products with FSC status. However, FSC Australia chairman, Michael Spencer, has made it clear in the Tasmanian Times that, as yet, no Tasmanian products have FSC status.

19/5/2010: PERFECT STORM JUST GOT WORSE
It has been announced that Gunns are now going to face a class action from IMF Australia because of their unexpected drop in profits and alleged failure to disclose. The share price dropped another 9%.

10/5/2010: INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS NOT HAPPY
As predicted below, institutional investors are not happy that John Gay and Robin Gray are still there and want them out completely. Meanwhile Gunns have had to close their woodchip mills again due to lack of business, Forestry Tasmania is flagging a loss and a forum has been convened to see what can be done to revive the Forestry industry in Tasmania.

24/4/2010: GUNNS SHUFFLES THE DECKCHAIRS
Gunns have attempted to defuse institutional shareholders demands that John Gay and Robin Gray resign by announcing a re-structuring. A new company will be setup to promote the pulp mill with John Gay as MD. Gunns will have 51% of this company. Gay will resign from Gunns as will Gray. Gunns will sell everything that is not bolted down and use it to retire debt and buy its share of the pulp mill company. It's difficult to see how this changes anything and we shall see if the institutional investors are happy. I would not be if I was a shareholder with even more of Gunns' profits being diverted to the pulp mill which is looking increasingly unlikely.

1/4/2010: PERFECT STORM HITS GUNNS
Chip exports have collapsed, Managed Investment Schemes are on the nose, customers are insisting on FSC certification which Gunns does not have and now the Greens hold the balance of power in the Tasmanian Parliament. Institutional investors are trying to force changes on Gunns' board. The chip mills are closed. The one candidate who hung his banner on the pulp mill (Scott Maclean) was soundly rejected as was the minister who spent time trying to prop up Gunns'exports just before the election, David Llewellyn. How long can all this go on?

16/3/2010: GAY'S DAYS NUMBERED?
A group of institutional investors have visited Launceston to demand John Gay's resignation. Gay refused. However, if the the investors have the numbers then Gay will eventually be forced out. The question is 'Have they got the numbers?'. Gay has been given until 9th April to resign or an extraordinary general meeting will be called. If Gay is forced out, the mill project may well be over as Gay is the chief advocate. This may well be the reason for the 'administration' rumour as these interstate investors may have been mistaken for bank administrators. Who can tell? Interesting times.

Gunns'shareholder revolt

11/3/2010: GUNNS IN ADMINISTRATION??
An article published in today's Tasmanian Times claimed that an 'impeccable' source reported that Gunns has been placed in administration by its main bankers the ANZ Bank. An announcement would not be made until after the State election on March 20th to avoid damage to the Liberal or Labor party. The article was removed after a few hours so we will have to wait and see.

7/3/2010: FSC MAJOR PROBLEM FOR GUNNS
Gunns decision to ignore the growing power of the FSC label on wood products is starting to cost them dearly. Their latest ASX statement states that they will now apply for FSC (Forest Stewardship Certification). The problem is that, in spite of statements to the contrary by Forestry Tasmania, the State is light years away from the standards expected from FSC. Gunns have not yet applied for FSC and probably will not do so until their financial restructure has occurred. It could be that Gunns are hoping that part of their business could get FSC leaving the rest to carry on as before. This, according to a source close to FSC, is very unlikely. Meanwhile Gunns have lost their woodchip contracts because they do not have FSC and might well be operating at a loss. Gunns say they hope to announce a joint venture partner for the pulp mill by the end of June. They said the same thing last year. Potential JVP Sodra have said that unless Gunns get FSC there will be no deal. Another potential problem for Gunns is that, if they are going to import timber from Victoria to make the mill plantation only, the port of Portland will have to upgraded as at present it is too small for the volume required.

22/2/2010: AUSTRALIAN STORY IMPLICATES PLANTATION TREES
The ABC program 'Australian Story' tonight suggested that poisons from plantation trees, genetically modified E.Nitens, have reached the ground water in the area around St Helens in Tasmania. The implications for forestry are explosive and surely the Government will be forced to investigate this properly and ban these plantations if it is true.

22/2/2010: GUNNS' PROFIT DROPS 98%
Gunns' half yearly statement says that profits have dropped from $33m. to $0.4m. The company is having to be totally restructured because of the pulp mill proposal. Overseas investors will be encouraged to invest in Gunns' forestry assetts - that will not be popular with the public. No dividend is being paid and the shares have dropped 22% with eight times the normal trading volume. In other words investors are reading between the lines and do not like what they see.

11/2/2010: 800,000 TONNE WOODCHIP FIRESALE
A deal (without any details as usual) has been announced to sell woodchips which will keep the industry going another 3 months - after that who knows. The rumour is that Gunns owe Forestry Tasmania $20m. and that negotiations with bankers are in progress regarding Gunns financial position. A full audit of their assets might be on the cards - a sign that banks are starting to worry about their loans to the company.

10/2/2010: LIES, MORE LIES AND DECEPTION ON PIPELINE CORRIDOR
A freedom of information request has found out that the Goverment have been doing what they said they would not do - ie compulsorily purchase land for the Gunns' water pipeline. The letters show that the DIER have been secretely negotiating with Gunns to but extra land for the pipeline alongside the new Dilston bypass. This is almost certainly against the law and a legal challenge might eventuate. Both Mr. Bartlett and opposition leader Mr. Hodgeman have refused to rule out allowing Gunns to use the corridor. There are still sections of the pipeline route that Gunns have not acquired.

Mercury

29/1/2010: GUNNS DROPS COURT CASE
Gunns have decided to drop their court case against the remainder of the Gunns20. The bad press generated would be very damaging to their pulp mill proposal.

26/1/2010: MINISTER BACK FROM JAPAN WITH SOME UNPALATABLE TRUTHS
Resources Minister David Llewellyn has returned from Japan blaming opponents of the Tamar pulp mill for lost business and with a message for Gunns and Forestry Tasmania: switch to FSC. It's ten years too late Mr Llewellyn. The lost busines is entirely due to your, and FT and Gunns, total lack of foresight. There were no meetings with potential financiers.

22/1/2010: GAY RUSHES OFF TO JAPAN
Gunns' MD John Gay, together with Forestry boss Bob Gordon and Minister David Llewellyn, has gone to Japan. The forestry industry say it is to try and get back lost woodchip contracts but there is a suspicion that pulp mill finance might be on the agenda. Meanwhile it has been revealed in a 'freedom of information' request that the State Government have paid for a pipeline culvert to be built on the East Tamar Highway. Gunns, profits about $64m. last year, claimed they could not afford the $239,000 it cost to build. If the mill does not go ahead, it is unlikely the taxpayer will get back the cash. There is also a rumour that Gunns owes Forestry Tasmania $20m. Does any other company in Tasmania get this favoured treatment? Gunns' share price has gone down sharply in the last few days.

SO:

Gunns asks the DIER to pay a bill for them - by email.  The department agrees by email without further investigation. Gunns  
makes a $64m. yearly profit and can afford to blow $2m. suing environmentalists. They hope to raise $2.5bn to build the mill but they cannot
afford $239,000!!

The Government dispenses taxpayers' money by return email but keeps it secret. Meanwhile it resists spending more on safety measures for the
Dilston Bypass which could save lives, and, when asked by a local landowner if the culvert is for the pipeline, they reply no. A blatant lie!!